According to the latest IMS figures, the pharmaceutical industry can expect annual growth of 5 -8 % over the next five years.
This equates to an increase of almost $300bn and means the global industry will be worth $1.1tn by 2014, despite the fact that 6 of the top 10 selling in the US will lose their patent protection between 2011 and 2012.
The report identified five key area market dynamics that would affect industry growth:
- The continued influence of emerging markets, including China and India
- Growth in therapy areas currently with unmet needs
- Publicly funded health systems under economic pressure to reduce growth in budgets
- Patent expiry’s on leading at similar times
- More rigorous and complex assessment and regulation of new products
IMS predicts that this latter trend will contribute to lower spending by payers and increase the time taken to launch products. The number of new molecular entities launched each year until 2014 is expected to remain at 30 – 35.
Murray Aitken, senior vice president of Healthcare Insight, said: “Patient demand for pharmaceuticals will remain robust, despite the ongoing effects of the economic downturn being felt in many parts of the world. In developed markets with publicly funded healthcare plans, pressure by payers to curb spending growth will only intensify, but that will be more than offset by the ongoing, rapid expansion of demand in emerging markets.”
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