The biggest-selling drug in 2018 will be…

EvaluatePharma, a UK based company specializing in pharma and biotech analysis has been gazing long and hard into its crystal ball.

Having scrutinized the world’s leading 3,500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies they have come up with a list of what, they believe, will be the top 10 selling drugs in 2018.

  1. Januvia       (diabetes) – $9.7 billion
  2. Humira        (arthritis) – $8.2 billion
  3. Avastin        (cancer) – $7.5 billion
  4. Enbrel          (arthritis)  – $7.2 billon
  5. Revlimid     (myelodysplastic syndrome) – $6.75 billion
  6. Prevnar 13  (pneumococcal vaccine) – $6.72 billion
  7. Rituxan         (cancer) – $6.3 billion
  8. Lantus           (diabetes) – $5.9 billion
  9. Remicade     (arthritis) – $5.8 billion
  10. Advair            (COPD)  – $5.7 billion

Surprised?  No conventional molecules, no cholesterol lowering agents, no blood pressure meds and not a single new drug among the top ten.  However, they predict the #11 best seller will be GS-7977 – the much anticipated oral hepatitis C drug from Gilead Sciences .

Not so surprising, given the obesity epidemic sweeping the western world that 2 of the front runners are diabetes drugs. Likewise, given the globally aging population – 3 are for arthritis.

#5 may be a surprise to many. Few people had ever heard of myelodysplastic syndrome before ABC news anchor Robin Roberts announced last week that she has the disease.  Still, it’s predicted number 5 status doesn’t mean that an epidemic is expected – it’s still relatively rare with only 10,000 or so new cases detected each year. Its lofty status on the list is more to do with the price. It costs a staggering $10,000 or so for a 28 day supply of the pills.

Other predictions from the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018 report:

  • Worldwide prescription drug sales are forecast to total $885bn in 2018 an increase of 3.1% from 2011
  • Over $290bn of pharmaceutical sales are at risk from patent expirations between now and 2018
  • Pfizer was the top company for prescription drug sales in 2011, but  Novartis will top the list by 2018
  • Global pharmaceutical R&D spend forecast will grow by 1.5% per year to $149bn in 2018
  • Anti-coagulants (blood thinners) are set to record highest growth of major therapy categories to 2018

Interesting stuff. But the problem with such long term predictive models is that they are but a snapshot  trying to project out six years.

In reality, life is a movie, with a frequently changing plot. For example if J&J’s canagliflozin can reduce obesity and improve blood sugar levels better than Januvia then the projected No. 1 ranking is suspect, at best.

Getting Cheery Over Cherries!

Regular readers of SRxA’s Word on Health will be familiar with the many claimed health benefits of fruit. Bananas for HIV prevention, citrus to safeguard us against stroke, berries to prevent Parkinson’s Disease and even exotic cupuaçu for improved reproductive health.

According to many, including TV’s Dr. Oz, the latest superfruit on the block is tart cherries. Extensive research has linked the delicious bright red fruit to a number of benefits, including better sleep, reduced pain from gout and arthritis, reduced post-exercise muscle and joint pain as well as reduced cholesterol, and decreased risk for atherosclerosis and metabolic syndrome.

Dr. Oz, has gone so far as to say that tart cherries are the ultimate antioxidant.

New research from Oregon Health & Science University presented last week at the American College of Sports Medicine Conference confirmed that tart cherries can help to reduce chronic inflammation and can help people with osteoarthritis manage their disease.

In a study of twenty women ages 40 – 70 with inflammatory osteoarthritis, the researchers found that drinking tart cherry juice twice daily for three weeks led to significant reductions in important inflammation markers – especially for those women who had the highest inflammation levels at the start of the study.

With millions of Americans looking for ways to naturally manage pain, it’s promising that tart cherries can help, without the possible side effects often associated with arthritis medications,” said principal study investigator Kerry Kuehl, M.D. “I’m intrigued by the potential for a real food to offer such a powerful anti-inflammatory benefit – especially for active adults.”

Often characterized as “wear and tear” arthritis, osteoarthritis is the most common type of arthritis. Athletes are often at a greater risk for developing the condition, given their excessive joint use that can cause a breakdown in cartilage and lead to pain and injury.

Anthocyanins – the antioxidant compounds in tart cherries – appear to reduce inflammation to levels comparable to some well-known pain medications.

Previous research on tart cherries and osteoarthritis found that a daily dose of tart cherries helped reduce osteoarthritis pain by more than 20%.

Leslie Bonci, Director of Sports Nutrition at the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center for Sports Medicine, has incorporated tart cherries into the training menu of her professional athletes. She claims they are a natural and easy way to manage pain and also taste great.

Never heard of tart cherries, or concerned that they have such a short season?  The great news is that they are available year-round in dried, frozen, powder and juice forms too.